Game theory experts to analyse space debris removal
October
22, 2015
Researchers from the University of
Liverpool are using strategic game theory to analyse the accumulation of space
debris, and to assess removal efforts and mitigation measures to limit its
growth.
Space debris is non-manoeuvrable,
human-made objects which orbit the Earth which poses a significant collision
risk for operational spacecraft, especially in low-Earth orbit.
A collision with a piece of space
debris of about ten centimetre in diameter would cause a spacecraft to
disintegrate resulting in more space debris fragments, which in turn increases
collision risk.
The build-up of space debris could
eventually result in a catastrophic cascade of collisions, called the Kessler
syndrome. Currently, there are more than 23,000 objects larger than 5-10cm in
Earth's orbit.
Supported by the European Space
Agency (ESA), University Computer Scientists will develop theoretical models to
study the accrual and removal of space debris as well as assess the different
policies and actions that could be used to limit its growth.
Game theory
Game theory is an economical theory
that models interactions between rational agents as games of two or more
players that can choose from a set of strategies and the corresponding
preferences. It is the mathematical study of interactive decision making in the
sense that the agents involved in the decisions take into account their own
choices and those of others.
The Liverpool team (Dr Daan
Bloembergen, Professor Karl Tuyls , Dr. Rahul Savani, Richard Klima) at the ESA
in the Netherlands.
Choices are determined by stable
preferences concerning the outcomes of their possible decisions and agents act
strategically, in other words, they take into account the relation between
their own choices and the decisions of other agents. Different economical
situations lead to different rational strategies for the players involved.
Dynamic game
Professor Karl Tuyls who is leading
the project said: "We will be using game theory
techniques to model debris accumulation and active removal efforts from space
agencies and governments as a dynamic game, to determine optimal behaviour
assuming both cooperative and self-interested parties, and hopefully to propose
a mechanism to steer the behaviour of these involved parties to a desirable
outcome.
"Space debris accumulation has
become a critical problem that can potentially affect all of us, not just
governments, space agencies and industry."
Professor Tuyls added: "It is
expected that this study will provide a deeper understanding of the space
debris problem and its potential economic ramifications, and will provide an
insight into the use of game theory solution strategies to address complex
real-life issues."
The ESA is investing in mission
concepts to clean up and deorbit space debris. Removing
active debris represents a number of technical complex challenges as well as
being a very costly undertaking.
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